The Map
Charlie Cook, the founder of the Cook Political Report gave a report recently about the legislative district.
He said “a key question for November is which will be dominant: the environment or geography. Put another way, in both the House and Senate, it’s the wave versus the map.”
“Just about any fair-minded assessment of the House would show that Democrats have probably more than a 50-50 chance of taking control of the House,” he wrote.
“The closer we get to the election, the better sense we’ll have of whether the wave or the map is winning out,” he added.
Nate Silver, the founder of Five Thirty Eight also gave his analysis.
He said “it’s higher than it probably ‘should’ be given how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans. But it’s still a fairly steep hill to climb.
He gives the Democrats a 35% chance of winning the Senate. Cook agreed with what Silver’s data claimed.
Cook said he was “watching the numbers but taking a lot of nonnumerical points into consideration as well.”
