The nuclear issue has long been at the heart of U.S.–Iran tensions, and Iranian officials have insisted that any lasting settlement must address their rights to nuclear development. Sanctions relief — a priority repeatedly stated by Iranian negotiators — remained among the most contentious points, given Washington’s stated policy of maintaining economic pressure as leverage.

The United States and Iran agreed to a provisional ceasefire on a Tuesday that suspended active fighting for at least two weeks. However, that truce has come under strain. Israel — which was not party to the Islamabad talks — has continued military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Iran accused Israel of violating the spirit of the ceasefire through those ongoing strikes, and the situation created additional pressure on American negotiators as they sought to broker a broader peace.

President Trump acknowledged the tension, reportedly asking Israel to scale back its assault. Israeli fighter jets had not attacked Beirut since Wednesday, but Israeli airstrikes continued in southern Lebanon through at least Saturday morning, according to Lebanon’s state media. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that while Iran’s military had been severely damaged, the war was “not over.”

Diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel are separately expected in Washington the following week, with the two countries’ ambassadors to the United States set to meet for direct discussions. However, U.S. officials indicated that a settlement to end the fighting in Lebanon was not expected any time soon.

With the two-week ceasefire window closing and no formal agreement in place, the immediate trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain. Mr. Vance’s framing — that the American offer remained on the table — left open the possibility of further diplomacy, but the terms under which Iran might return to negotiations were not publicly specified. The question of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain a pressure point: the waterway is critical to global oil shipments, and both sides have significant interest in its status. American mine-clearing operations, if confirmed, could either be interpreted as a stabilizing step or as a provocation, depending on perspective.

The situation in Lebanon adds a further complicating dimension. Iran has positioned Israel’s ongoing strikes against Hezbollah as a violation of the ceasefire’s intent, while Israel has maintained its right to continue operations against what it describes as an existential threat. The displacement of more than one million Lebanese civilians since the renewed fighting began underscores the humanitarian dimension of a conflict that diplomatic efforts have so far failed to fully arrest.

The Islamabad talks, despite ending without agreement, represented a departure from decades of near-total diplomatic estrangement between Washington and Tehran — a fact that analysts and officials from both sides acknowledged even amid the failure to reach a deal. Whether that opening will be built upon, or whether the expiration of the current ceasefire will return the region to active hostilities, remained an open question as of Sunday morning.