The Impact of Delayed Results in Key States
History shows this isn’t the first time House control has been uncertain due to tight races. In 2022, it took over a week post-Election Day for the Associated Press to confirm the Republican majority, mainly due to delayed counts in California, a trend that may repeat this year. A GOP strategist noted, “The big question mark is California. We’re kind of counting on not knowing a lot of the results in California maybe until, like, the week of Thanksgiving.”
Six out of the fifteen seats rated as toss-ups in a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill analysis are in California, including those of GOP incumbents like John Duarte and Mike Garcia. In California, the process is slowed by its policy to count mail-in ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and received up to seven days later. The second GOP strategist cited Duarte’s race, which was called nearly a month after Election Day in 2022, emphasizing that California’s counting system tends to prolong the final outcomes.
Washington and Oregon may also contribute to the delay, as both states rely exclusively on mail-in voting. Ballots must be postmarked, not received, by Election Day, which could lead to a slower count in battleground districts like Oregon’s 5th and Washington’s 3rd, both of which are ranked as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Pennsylvania, though not entirely reliant on mail-in ballots, faces potential delays due to election rules that prevent processing those ballots before Election Day. This may impact close races involving incumbents Matt Cartwright (D), Susan Wild (D), and Scott Perry (R).
Even some of the faster-counting states may experience delays if the races are close. Virginia, Iowa, and Michigan, for example, could have unresolved contests by the end of election night, with significant races in Virginia’s open seat left by Abigail Spanberger (D) and Iowa’s 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) is a Democratic target. As a Democratic strategist noted, “I don’t think any of us would be surprised if we didn’t have declared winners in Virginia and Iowa on election night.”
Leadership Decisions Amidst Uncertainty
The potential delay in determining House control introduces additional challenges for Republicans as they prepare for internal leadership elections scheduled for November 13. If Democrats secure control, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could advance to Speaker. However, if Republicans retain the House, leadership decisions may be influenced by the uncertainty. Speaker Mike Johnson has not indicated if he would seek the minority leader role if Democrats win, and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) may face competition from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who has been expanding his influence across GOP factions.
The uncertainty has led some GOP members to call for a delay in leadership elections. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a vocal critic of Johnson, posted on X, urging for the elections to be postponed, stating, “Leadership races should not be rushed for political gain.” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who previously supported Greene’s attempt to remove Johnson from the Speakership, echoed her sentiment by reposting her call for delay.
While House Republicans held their leadership elections in 2022 despite not having the majority fully confirmed, the outlook then was more favorable. Johnson, when asked last week in Pennsylvania about delaying leadership elections if House control remains uncertain, offered, “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”
Election Uncertainty on the Horizon
With razor-thin margins and slow counting processes in key states, Americans may find themselves waiting days or even weeks to learn the outcome of this election. The prolonged uncertainty could influence both the legislative priorities of Congress and the leadership structure within the House. As both parties brace for a potential shift in power, the final results will not only shape the upcoming Congressional agenda but also reflect the deep partisan divide across the country.
