Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate agreements negotiated with the United States following two days of intensive peace talks held in Saudi Arabia. While the agreements signal a step toward easing tensions in a vital trade region, they also come with several conditions and continued uncertainty. According to statements from Washington, all parties remain committed to pursuing a “durable and lasting peace,” and the ceasefire would reopen a key maritime route that has been disrupted since the outbreak of the conflict. The US also indicated that both sides had agreed to begin implementing a previously discussed ban on attacks targeting one another’s energy infrastructure.
However, the Kremlin made it clear that Russia’s participation in the naval ceasefire is contingent on the removal of specific international sanctions. These include restrictions that have hindered its food and fertilizer trade. Russia stated that it would not enforce the ceasefire until sanctions on its banks, food producers, and exporters are lifted. This includes demands for reconnection to the SwiftPay payment network, the removal of restrictions on Russian-flagged ships transporting food products, and the resumption of agricultural machinery and supplies needed for production.
Although the United States did not provide an exact timeline for when the ceasefire would begin, it did signal a willingness to help reintegrate Russia into the global agricultural and fertilizer markets. “We’re thinking about all of them right now. We’re looking at them,” former President Donald Trump said when asked about lifting sanctions, highlighting the fluid nature of the discussions.
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“#BREAKING | Russia and Ukraine agree to a truce on the BlackSea, ensuring safe navigation, eliminating force, and preventing military use of commercial vessels after talks in Saudi Arabia @mohammed11saleh tells you more”
Ukraine Responds With Caution While Russia Sets Conditions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded cautiously to the developments, stating during a press conference in Kyiv, “It is too early to say that it will work, but these were the right meetings, the right decisions, the right steps.” Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to pursuing peace, asserting, “No-one can accuse Ukraine of not moving towards sustainable peace after this.” His remarks appeared to counter earlier criticisms from President Trump, who had accused him of obstructing a peace deal.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s insistence that sanctions must first be lifted led Zelensky to describe Washington’s support for reopening Russian agricultural trade as a “weakening of positions.” He also issued a warning, promising Ukraine would pursue additional sanctions and military aid from the United States if Moscow failed to adhere to its commitments. In his nightly address, Zelensky went further, accusing the Kremlin of dishonesty regarding the conditional nature of the ceasefire, stating that Moscow’s linkage of the agreement to sanctions was misleading.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov added that third-party nations might be involved in overseeing aspects of the agreement. He stressed that if Russian warships moved beyond the eastern Black Sea, it would constitute a breach of the truce and a threat to Ukraine’s national security. “In this case, Ukraine will have the full right to exercise its right to self-defence,” he said.
Historical Context and Continued Strikes Add Complexity
The latest ceasefire discussions follow the collapse of the “Black Sea grain deal,” which was originally established in 2022 to allow for the safe passage of commercial shipping following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That deal permitted the shipment of grain, sunflower oil, and fertilizer through the Black Sea and was extended several times before Russia withdrew from the agreement in July 2023. Moscow argued that key provisions had not been honored, disrupting the export of food from one of the world’s most crucial agricultural regions.
Following the new talks, both Russia and Ukraine have also reaffirmed a pledge to avoid targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. This marks a renewed attempt to reduce attacks that have left major civilian populations in distress. Russian assaults on Ukrainian energy facilities have caused extensive power outages, leaving thousands without heating during winter months. Additionally, attacks on nuclear power plants have drawn concern from the United Nations atomic agency, which has repeatedly called for both sides to show restraint.
The ceasefire on energy targets, initially brokered during a call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has already faced violations. Almost immediately after its announcement, both countries accused one another of breaching the terms. While talks were ongoing in Riyadh, Moscow accused Ukraine of attacking Russian civilian energy infrastructure, saying this demonstrated that Zelensky was “incapable of sticking to agreements,” according to Russia’s defense ministry.
Simultaneously, Russia carried out a missile attack on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy, injuring over 100 people on Monday. Ukraine later reported that Russia had launched 139 drones and one ballistic missile overnight and claimed to have killed up to 30 Russian troops in a strike on military infrastructure in the Kursk region.
Uncertain Path Ahead Despite Agreement
Although the naval ceasefire in the Black Sea marks a notable diplomatic development, the path to peace remains filled with obstacles. Russia’s demand for sanctions relief as a prerequisite and continued military exchanges on both sides reflect the deep-seated challenges of enforcing any agreement. While both the United States and Ukraine have expressed cautious optimism, the viability of the ceasefire depends on mutual compliance and international willingness to mediate future violations. Until these elements are addressed, any resolution remains fragile and conditional.
