Polls are unable to predict the winner of the upcoming presidential election, the party that will control Congress or the victor in any specific state. The race remains tight, and polls in past elections have often missed the mark. However, certain patterns in polling data have revealed pivotal dynamics shaping this election and provide insights into how the contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris may unfold.
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Gender Gap Reaches New Heights
A significant divide in voter preferences between genders is evident. According to the latest national NBC News poll, Trump leads men by 18 percentage points, while Harris holds a 16-point advantage with women — creating a 34-point gender gap, up from 30 points in a previous NBC News poll. While not every survey shows this stark contrast, the gender gap remains a key factor. Notably, this division intensifies along educational lines, with Harris showing strong support among white women with college degrees, in contrast to Trump’s appeal among voters lacking college education.
Factors such as Harris’s potential to become the first female president, the Roe v. Wade decision, and Trump’s distinct appeal to male voters have all contributed to this divide. Trump’s messaging continues to resonate strongly with men, further amplifying the gender gap.
Shifts Among Latino and Black Voters
While Harris and the Democrats have made inroads with white, college-educated women, they’ve experienced a noticeable decline among Latino voters. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll shows a shift toward Republicans among this demographic. Furthermore, there’s evidence of a slight dip in Democratic support among Black voters, particularly younger Black men.
These trends could significantly impact the election outcome, especially if shifts within these groups are concentrated in swing states, which would influence the Electoral College results.
Trump’s Presidency Viewed More Favorably Than Biden’s
In terms of retrospective approval, Trump’s presidency now fares better in the polls than Biden’s. NBC News polls indicate Biden holds a 41% approval rating, with 58% disapproving of his performance. Trump’s retrospective job rating, on the other hand, sits at 48% approve and 51% disapprove, a level of support he rarely enjoyed during his presidency.
This favorable view of Trump’s presidency plays into the narrative that some swing voters may be willing to overlook his character issues in favor of a return to pre-COVID economic conditions.
Harris’s Popularity Slightly Outpaces Trump’s
Despite Trump’s higher retrospective approval, he remains broadly unpopular as a nominee. His net rating among registered voters is -9, while Harris holds a marginally better rating at -7. Although Harris’s initial popularity surge has leveled off, her approval remains slightly higher than Trump’s. Polls indicate that a Harris victory would be unusual given her current popularity metrics.
Key Issues: Abortion and the Economy
Polls have consistently highlighted key issues where each candidate excels. Harris leads on the topic of abortion rights, a top motivating factor for many voters, according to NBC News. Conversely, Trump has a consistent edge on economic concerns and cost-of-living issues, although this lead is less pronounced than when Biden was still on the Democratic ticket. Additionally, Trump’s strongest advantage lies in border control and immigration — a topic he has leveraged extensively during the campaign.
Both candidates have made moves to counter their perceived weaknesses. Trump, for example, stated in a debate with Harris that he would not support a national abortion ban, while Harris’s campaign quickly launched a border-focused ad after she assumed the Democratic ticket.
Who Represents Change?
In a contest between a current vice president and a former president, the question of which candidate best embodies change is crucial. According to the final NBC News poll, 46% of voters see Harris as representing change, while 41% believe Trump does. This narrow edge suggests that both candidates are vying for the approval of voters dissatisfied with the current state of the nation.
Voters were also asked about their concerns regarding continuity in governance. The poll shows a near-even split: 41% are more worried about Harris following Biden’s policies, while 40% are more concerned about Trump continuing his prior policies.
Unpredictable Yet Defining Election
The consistent themes across polls reveal the complex and polarized landscape of the 2024 election. With significant divides by gender, race, and issue, the outcome will likely hinge on how these dynamics play out across pivotal voting blocks. As both Trump and Harris vie to represent change in their unique ways, the final decision will come down to the voters’ interpretation of progress and stability in a highly uncertain race.
