US employment showed stronger-than-expected growth in November, partially offsetting the significant losses experienced in October due to the federal government shutdown, according to official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The report revealed an estimated 105,000 jobs were lost in October, followed by an addition of 64,000 positions in November, exceeding many economists’ expectations of roughly 40,000 new jobs. Despite this rebound, the headline unemployment rate continued to rise, reaching 4.6% last month, marking a four-year high amid concerns about the underlying strength of the US economy.
Revised figures for August and September also showed slight downward adjustments, with August’s job change shifting from a loss of 4,000 to a loss of 26,000, and September’s growth revised from 119,000 to 108,000 jobs. These adjustments come during a period of turmoil for US economic data, historically considered highly reliable, as the BLS delayed November’s report and suspended full October data collection due to the 43-day federal government shutdown. Questions regarding the accuracy of these figures have been raised, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell advising that they be treated with a “skeptical eye” as the effects of the shutdown continue to ripple through the economy.
Signs of a weakening job market have emerged, as ADP data showed US private-sector employers cut approximately 32,000 jobs in November after adding 47,000 in October. The September jobs report, delayed due to the shutdown, recorded an increase of 119,000 jobs, surpassing economist predictions, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. Powell warned that labor supply constraints, exacerbated by former President Trump’s immigration policies, have kept the unemployment rate relatively flat.
“Labor supply has also come down quite sharply. So, you know, if you had a world where there is just no growth in workers and you really don’t need a lot of jobs to have full employment, some people argue that is what we are looking at,” Powell said. “So, there is an overcount in the payroll job numbers, we think, continuing, and it will be corrected. I don’t have an exact month in my head right now. Again, I think forecasters generally understand that. We think it is about 60,000 a month, so 40,000 jobs could be negative 20, but that could be wrong by 10 or 20 in either direction.”
Powell also cautioned that the jobs report data might be less reliable due to incomplete data collection in October and early November. “We are going to get data, but we are going to have to look at it carefully and a somewhat skeptical eye by the January meeting,” he added. Economists indicated that the most recent jobs figures are unlikely to sway Federal Reserve policymakers to ease monetary policy in their upcoming meetings. “The labor market remains weak, but the pace of deterioration probably is too slow to spur the FOMC to ease again in January,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The BLS has faced significant scrutiny under the Trump administration. In August, Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer shortly after the July jobs report was released, claiming without evidence that the report was “rigged” against him. Trump’s nominee to replace McEntarfer, EJ Antoni, withdrew in late September following bipartisan criticism regarding his qualifications. During the 43-day government shutdown, the agency furloughed staff, and a new commissioner has yet to be appointed. Staffing at the BLS has also declined under the Trump administration, with total employees decreasing from 2,058 in fiscal year 2024 to a proposed 1,851 for fiscal year 2026, representing a 20% reduction.
Labor Market Faces Mixed Signals Heading Into 2026
US employment data reflects both recovery and ongoing challenges, highlighting the complex environment for policymakers. Job gains in November partially offset losses from October, but the rising unemployment rate and concerns about data reliability underscore continued uncertainty in the labor market. Federal Reserve guidance and future BLS reporting will play key roles in shaping the economic outlook for the coming months.
