Israel and Hamas have reached a significant agreement to halt the ongoing conflict in Gaza, marking a potential end to 15 months of hostilities. The deal, mediated by the United States and Qatar, includes a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
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Details of the Ceasefire Agreement
While the complete terms of the agreement have not been publicly disclosed, key elements have emerged. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that some clauses remain unresolved but expressed optimism about finalizing them soon. The finalized deal is expected to cease military operations in Gaza and facilitate the exchange of captives.
Hamas, which captured 251 hostages during its attack on Israel in October 2023, currently holds 94 individuals. Israeli assessments suggest that only 60 of these hostages are still alive. In return for the hostages, Israel plans to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been incarcerated for extended periods.
Phased Implementation of the Ceasefire
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The ceasefire is structured to unfold in three stages, pending approval from Israel’s security cabinet and government. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani indicated that, upon approval, the agreement would take effect on Sunday.
First Stage
The initial phase, lasting six weeks, will enforce a “full and complete ceasefire,” as confirmed by U.S. President Joe Biden. During this period, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages, including women, children, the elderly, and the sick, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer noted that most of the 33 hostages anticipated for release are believed to be alive.
Concurrently, Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their neighborhoods. The region has seen significant displacement due to ongoing conflicts. Additionally, there will be an increase in humanitarian aid deliveries, with hundreds of trucks permitted entry daily.
Second Stage
The second phase aims to establish a permanent end to the conflict. This stage involves the release of the remaining hostages, including men, in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners. Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners slated for release, about 190 are serving sentences exceeding 15 years. Notably, individuals convicted of murder will not be returned to the occupied West Bank but may be relocated to Gaza or other countries. This phase also includes a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Third Stage
The final stage focuses on the reconstruction of Gaza, a process anticipated to span several years and the return of the remains of any deceased hostages.
Challenges and Considerations
Achieving this agreement has involved extensive indirect negotiations complicated by deep-seated mistrust between Israel and Hamas. Hamas initially demanded a total cessation of the war before releasing hostages, a condition Israel found unacceptable. The current ceasefire serves as a provisional pause, with its permanence yet to be determined.
Israel’s primary objective has been to dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. Despite substantial setbacks, Hamas retains some operational capacity. Uncertainties persist regarding the status of all hostages and the specific terms of prisoner releases, particularly concerning individuals involved in the October 7 attacks.
The durability of the ceasefire remains uncertain. Previous truces between Israel and Hamas have been fragile, often disrupted by skirmishes leading to renewed conflict. The complexity and timeline of the current agreement mean that even minor incidents could jeopardize its success.
Background of the Conflict
The conflict escalated on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, resulting in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of over 250 individuals to Gaza. In retaliation, Israel initiated a comprehensive military campaign involving airstrikes and a ground invasion, causing widespread devastation in Gaza and severe humanitarian crises. According to Gaza’s health ministry, over 46,700 people, predominantly civilians, have been killed due to Israeli actions.
Hope for Peace Amidst Fragility
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas represents a pivotal moment in the longstanding conflict, offering a potential pathway to peace and stability in the region. The successful implementation of this multi-phase plan could lead to the cessation of hostilities, the safe return of hostages, and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction. However, the fragility of past ceasefires and the complexities involved necessitate cautious optimism as both parties navigate the challenges ahead.
