In the highly contested 2024 presidential race, the outcome depends largely on the pace of ballot counting across seven key swing states, each governed by its own set of election laws and varying volumes of absentee ballots. While early insights into who might lead could emerge from states like Georgia and North Carolina on Election Day, the final count might take additional days or even weeks to confirm the official winner.
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Critical Points
Given the narrow margin between candidates Harris and Trump, with polling averages showing only a two-point difference nationally, any delay in reporting could make the final result uncertain for days. Close races in these crucial battleground states mean a small number of votes could ultimately decide the election.
The Associated Press, relied upon by major media outlets, determines election results based on when it becomes “certain that the candidate who’s ahead in the count can’t be caught,” utilizing data scraped from official state websites, as well as contributions from vote center clerks and a network of stringers across the nation.
Expected Reporting Times in Key Swing States
- North Carolina: One of the earliest states expected to report results, North Carolina could have up to 90% of ballots counted by midnight on Election Day, according to Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina. With polls closing at 7:30 p.m. ET, officials can start processing absentee ballots from early October, though in-person votes are counted after polls close.
- Georgia: Another state expected to report results early, Georgia allows officials to process mail-in ballots from the third Monday before Election Day and start counting at 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and a recent law requires early and absentee ballots to be reported by 8 p.m., with an update on uncounted ballots by 10 p.m.
- Wisconsin: In Wisconsin, absentee ballots are processed starting at 7 a.m. on Election Day. With polls closing at 9 p.m. ET, early results may appear late in the night or into the following day.
- Michigan: Unofficial results in Michigan are expected the day after Election Day, with larger cities allowed to begin processing ballots eight days before the election to expedite counting. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but some areas in the Central Time Zone continue voting until 9 p.m.
- Pennsylvania: Known for lengthy counting, Pennsylvania’s election officials can only start processing mail-in ballots on Election Day, so results may take several days to complete. However, improved ballot processing equipment and a reduction in mail-in voting compared to 2020 might shorten wait times.
- Nevada: Results in Nevada may take longer, as officials cannot release outcomes until the last voter in line has cast their ballot after polls close at 10 p.m. ET. Most voters use mail-in ballots, which can be counted from 15 days before the election, though ballots postmarked by Election Day are counted if received by November 9.
- Arizona: With officials estimating a counting period of up to 13 days post-Election Day, Arizona is among the slowest to report. While mail-in ballots are counted as received, those submitted on Election Day are processed only after polls close at 9 p.m. ET. A lengthy two-page ballot may also contribute to delays.
Which States Are Likely to Report First?
Georgia and North Carolina are expected to be the first states to provide results, which may offer an early indication of the probable victor. Trump holds a narrow lead in both states, but polls show the candidates nearly tied, and results may be too close to call until the final count.
Recount Regulations in Swing States
Laws on recounts vary across the swing states:
- Arizona and Pennsylvania require automatic recounts if the margin between candidates is 0.5% or less. Pennsylvania also permits voters to request recounts by precinct if fraud or errors are suspected.
- Georgia allows recounts upon candidate request if the margin is within 0.5%, and its Secretary of State’s office can order a recount if there’s any indication of inaccuracies.
- Michigan’s new laws, signed in August, give candidates more flexibility to request a recount if they have a “good-faith belief” that errors in vote counts affected their chances of winning.
- Nevada grants candidates three days post-certification to request a recount, and North Carolina allows recount requests when the margin is within 1%.
- Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by 1% or less and have concerns over election irregularities.
Potential Voting Patterns
The phenomenon known as the “red mirage” could impact Election Day vote counts, with Trump likely to lead initially due to Republican preferences for in-person voting. As more absentee ballots are counted, often favoring Democratic voters, a “blue shift” might occur in the following days. Smaller, rural Republican-leaning districts tend to report first, potentially showing early Republican leads that could shift as urban Democratic precincts report later.
Historical Background
The 2020 election took four days to call, with President Biden declared the winner on November 7 after securing Pennsylvania’s votes. Counting delays occurred due to the unprecedented volume of mail-in ballots cast amid the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas the 2016 election was decided by the early morning after Election Day. This year’s election might see faster results, though absentee voting is expected to be lower than in 2020.
When Will We Know the Outcome?
The 2024 election results hinge on timely reporting and precise counting in swing states, with early indications expected from Georgia and North Carolina. However, as absentee and mail-in votes are processed, it may take several days or even weeks to confirm the official winner in what could be one of the closest elections in recent history.
